Singapore Politics from the lens of an Independent Voter

 I predict that East Coast GRC will remain tightly contested. This is based on various factors. 1. East Coast GRC has a history of PAP polling below national average. East Coast GRC now consisists of Bedok, Changi-Simei, Fengshan, Kampong Chai Chee and Siglap-Joo Chiat, The historical results are as follows:  East Coast GRC 2020 GE (PAP 53.39% vs WP 46.61%) East Coast GRC 2015 GE (PAP 60.73% vs WP 39.27%) East Coast GRC 2011 GE (PAP 54.8% vs WP 45.2%) East Coast GRC 2006 GE (PAP 63.9% vs WP 36.1%) Fengshan SMC 2015 GE (PAP 57.5% vs WP 42.5%) Joo Chiat SMC 2011 GE (PAP 51.02% vs WP 48.98%) Joo Chiat SMC 2006  GE (PAP 65.01% vs WP 34.99%) 2. There is a relatively high proportion of private housing dwellers in East Coast GRC . 49.3% of East Coast residents live in private housing. This is the second highest (behind Tanjong Pagar GRC). And in general, when a constituency has more private homes, the constituency tend to be less pro-PAP. This is because for many private h...

I predict that there is a good chance that WP might win Jalan Kayu SMC in GE2025. This is based on several factors. 1. Jalan Kayu SMC has one of the highest proportion of young voters . In fact, it is the SMC with the largest proportion of people under 20 years old. The percentage of people 45 years and below is 63.4%. The PAP fielded a relatively old candidate, Mr Ng Chee Meng who is aged 56 years (almost retirement age!) whilst the WP shrewdly fielded a young candidate Andre Low who is aged 33 years old. Voters in this constituency might be able to relate more to the younger Mr Andre Low than the older Mr Ng Chee Meng. Finally, young voters are generally more supportive of a more balanced and diverse Parliament. Under 20 years - 25.5% 21-25 years - 4.4% 26-45 years - 33.5% 46-65 years- 25.7% Above 65 years - 10.9% 2. Both candidates are relatively new to the area. Incumbent PAP MP Ng Ling Ling retired after one term. PAP candidate Mr Ng Chee Meng was previously the MP of Pasir-Ris P...

I predict that Bukit Gombak SMC will be a close contest. This is based on several factors: 1. Bukit Gombak has a history of hotly contested results dating back decades. •         GE2020 Chua Chu Kang 4M GRC (PAP 58.64% vs PSP) •         GE2015 Chua Chu Kang 4M GRC (PAP 76.89% vs PPP) •         GE2011 Chua Chu Kang 5M GRC (PAP 61.2% vs NSP) •         GE2006 Hong Kah 5M GRC (Walkover) •         GE2001 Hong Kah 5M GRC (PAP 79.74% vs SDP) •         GE1997 Bukit Gombak SMC (PAP 65.14%  vs SDP) •         GE1991 Bukit Gombak SMC (PAP LOST to SDP - 48.61%) •         GE1988 Bukit Gombak SMC (PAP 53.46% vs SDP) 2. There is a high proportion of private housing in Bukit Gombak SMC . 78.6% of voters in Buk...