Why Jalan Kayu SMC might turn WP blue in GE2025

I predict that there is a good chance that WP might win Jalan Kayu SMC in GE2025. This is based on several factors.

1. Jalan Kayu SMC has one of the highest proportion of young voters. In fact, it is the SMC with the largest proportion of people under 20 years old. The percentage of people 45 years and below is 63.4%. The PAP fielded a relatively old candidate, Mr Ng Chee Meng who is aged 56 years (almost retirement age!) whilst the WP shrewdly fielded a young candidate Andre Low who is aged 33 years old. Voters in this constituency might be able to relate more to the younger Mr Andre Low than the older Mr Ng Chee Meng. Finally, young voters are generally more supportive of a more balanced and diverse Parliament.

Under 20 years - 25.5%

21-25 years - 4.4%

26-45 years - 33.5%

46-65 years- 25.7%

Above 65 years - 10.9%

2. Both candidates are relatively new to the area. Incumbent PAP MP Ng Ling Ling retired after one term. PAP candidate Mr Ng Chee Meng was previously the MP of Pasir-Ris Punggol GRC (Punggol North) and stood and lost in Sengkang GRC in 2020 GE. WP candidate Mr Andre Low is a new candidate. Hence, besides political party incumbency, Mr Ng Chee Meng does not enjoy personal incumbency in Jalan Kayu SMC. However, it should be noted that Mr Ng Chee Meng does have a higher profile and name recognition compared to his opponent (which may or may not be a good thing... see next paragraph)

3. NTUC Income-Allianz saga might cost the PAP some votes. PAP candidate Ng Chee Meng is the NTUC Chief. Last year, NTUC Income-Allianz deal was scrapped after huge public uproar, including from establishment figures like Prof Tommy Koh. Recently, former NTUC Income Chief Mr Tan Suee Chieh kept putting the spotlight onto the NTUC Income Allianz issue. To be frank, the NTUC Income-Allianz deal is a very polarising issue. Some NTUC Income shareholders want the deal as they would be getting a sizeable payout if the deal materialises. On the other hand, many Singaporeans are unhappy with the selling of our NTUC Income, a well-known local cooperative, to a foreign company as they are worried that this might set a precedence for the sale of more of our government-linked companies, such as NTUC Fairprice, to foreign companies and possibly lead to higher costs for Singaporeans.

4. Jalan Kayu SMC has a history of close contests. Jalan Kayu SMC was previously part off hotly contested Cheng San GRC before being absorbed into Ang Mo Kio GRC in 2001 as part of the pre-election boundary review. In 1997 GE, Jalan Kayu SMC was part of Cheng San GRC, the most hotly contested GRC which saw the PAP edge out WP in a narrow win of 54.8% vs 45.2%.

5. Other factors that may favour the opposition. These include:
- The brand factor of WP. Amongst the various opposition parties, WP is better regarded and has better brand recognition due to its long history. In GE2020, WP won 10 seats (5M Aljunied GRC, 4M Sengkang GRC and Hougang SMC). The average contested vote share for the WP in GE2020 is 50.5%, higher than national average.
- National issues such as the GST increases and the associated cost of living increases tend to favour the opposition based on history.
- New PM effect, whereby the PAP loses votes each time a new PM takes office tend to favour the opposition based on history.
- PAP Incumbent Ms Ng Ling Ling is retiring after only one term. Ms Ng Ling Ling, who is 53 years old, is replaced by Mr Ng Chee Meng, who is 56 years old. This is strange and replacing a younger candidate with an older candidate is not consistent with PM Lawrence Wong's ideal of political renewal. This suggest that the PAP incumbent Ms Ng Ling Ling was replaced for other reasons such as possibly, underperformance or her inability to connect well with residents etc.

6. Factors that may favour the PAP. These include:
- WP candidate Mr Andre Low has come under scrutiny for his expletive-laden Telegram messages, showing contempt for various people, companies, institutions etc.  This might give some pause to voters who are leaning towards voting for him.

My conclusion:
I think that Jalan Kayu SMC will be a close contest and the WP might just eke out a win come election night.

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