Reflections of GE2025 (Part 1)

In the first part, I would go through the various predictions I made - What went right and what went wrong:

What went Right

- Sembawang SMC was predicted to be close. Indeed, SDP Chee Soon Juan garnered 46.81% of the votes, narrowly losing out to PAP Poh Li San 53.19%. 

- Jalan Kayu SMC was predicted to be close.  Indeed, WP Andre Low garnered 48.53% of the votes, narrowly losing out to PAP Ng Chee Meng 51.47%. 

- Tampines GRC was predicted to not be won by the WP. Indeed, WP garnered 47.37% of the votes, losing to PAP 52.02%. However, I was partially correct, as I honestly was expecting a much wider margin. 

- Punggol GRC will be a tight contest. I had predicted it and told my friends about it (but did not manage to post it on my blog before the polling day). However, I was only partially correct as the margin was honestly not so tight. The PAP won 55.17% of the votes vs WP 44.83%

What went Wrong

- New PM effect was not seen. Despite the PAP having a new Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, the PAP vote share went up from 61.23% to 65.57%, up 4.34% from last GE2020. This bucks the historical trend.

- GST increase effect was not seen. Despite the GST increase from 7% to 8%, 8% to 9%, the PAP vote share went up from 61.23% to 65.57%, up 4.34% from last GE2020. This bucks the historical trend.

- Bukit Gombak SMC was not close at all. The PAP Low Yen Ling won Bukit Gombak SMC with 75.83% vs 24.17% for the PSP Harish Pillay. This could be due to the fact that PAP Low Yen Ling is a three term MP,  poor candidate choice by the PSP, the inability for the PSP to excite voters and attract voter and media attention this GE2025.

- Bukit Panjang SMC was not close at all. The PAP Liang Eng Hwa won Bukit Panjang SMC with 61.41% vs 38.59% for the SDP Paul Tambyah. This could be due to the fact that PAP Liang Eng Hwa is now an incumbent MP who have served in Bukit Panjang SMC for one term already. Another factor could be that we are in the post-COVID era and that medical doctors do not attract the vote premium like in GE2020.

- West Coast- Jurong West GRC was not close at all. The PAP won West Coast- Jurong West GRC with 60.01% vs 39.99% for the PSP. This could be due to the fact that voters anger regarding the reserved Presidential election might have abated and that we are in the post-COVID era and that medical doctors do not attract the vote premium like in GE2020. Poor candidate choice by the PSP, the inability for the PSP to excite voters and attract voter and media attention this GE2025 could be other factors too. Also, there was heavy gerrymandering with the addition of 41,404 voters from from the Taman Jurong and Jurong Spring areas in Jurong GRC as well as the removal of 2,587 voters from the Sentosa/Harbourfront areas and 28,503 voters from the Telok Blangah area. Finally, after the scare in GE2020, the incumbent PAP MPs in West Coast GRC might have worked really hard to improve their service to their constituents.

- East Coast GRC was not close at all. The PAP won East Coast GRC with 58.76% vs 41.24% for the WP. This could be attributed to the fact that WP seem to have placed their weaker GRC team in East Coast GRC, and they did not excite the electorate like some member of their Tampines GRC and Punggol GRC team. Also, after the scare in GE2020, the incumbent PAP MPs in East Coast GRC might have worked really hard to improve their service to their constituents

My Conclusion: 

Many, if not all, the constituencies that were tightly contested were in new areas whereby the opposition never contested before or partially contested in previous GE2020. These include Jalan Kayu SMC, Tampines GRC, Sembawang West SMC and much of Punggol GRC. The incumbent PAP MP might not have expected a more credible opposition party such as the WP and SDP to contest there and were taken by surprise. But this is a good development as it reminds the PAP that there are no safe seats, and hence do not be complacent, as your substantial winning margin might be substantially eroded if a more credible opposition party decide to contest there.

In fact, the constituencies that were previously saw tight contest were neutralised and surprisingly not tight at all. These include notably West Coast-Jurong West GRC, East Coast GRC and Bukit Panjang SMC. This could be attributed to the fact that after the tight GE2020 contests, the PAP MPs really worked hard to improve their service to their constituents. Or perhaps, some voters who merely wanted to give the PAP a scare (but not vote them out) in GE2020 decided to change their votes in GE2025. 

Moving forward, it might be a case that close/tight election results forces the PAP to work harder and it then makes it harder for the opposition to win it the next GE. Hence, the strategy for the more credible opposition parties to consider could be to contest in seats that were contested by weaker opposition parties in previous GE, and where the incumbent PAP MP are complacent due to them winning comfortably against weaker opposition parties time and again. 

Bonus: As for how to judge which constituency could present opportunities for the more credible opposition party to spring a surprise, one can look at the rejected/spoilt vote share. When the rejected/spoilt vote share is high, it is a clear reflection that voters in that constituency are torn. They do not like their PAP MP, but they feel they cannot vote for the (weak) opposition candidate either. So this could present an opportunity for the more credible opposition parties to come in.