Reflections of GE2025 (Part 3)

In the third part, I will provide some thoughts on how the opposition parties can improve on their GE2025 results.

1. Rallies are important. In the nine-day campaign period, WP had five rallies. SDP had eight rallies. PSP had only three rallies over the nine-day campaign period. Some of the smaller opposition parties opted for one or two rallies or even e-rallies. In general, the more physical rallies, the better the result for opposition parties.

2. More young candidates. The WP had many young candidates that were featured prominently by the party and the media. SDP had Arrifin Sha who is 28 years old and three other candidates in their 40s. PSP youngest candidate is Stephanie Tan who is 37 years old, a not very young age. The next youngest PSP candidate was Wendy Low at 48 years old and Sani Ismail at 49 years old. The two young independent candidates at Mountbatten SMC (34 years old) and Radin Mas SMC (28 years old) did very credibly. The other opposition parties had many of the old familiar boring faces and they generally did badly

3. Groundwork is overrated compared to candidate quality and media attention. First, I would like to emphasise that groundwork is still important. However, good speakers and candidates able to grab the attention of the media and voters are more important. Many, if not all, the constituencies that were tightly contested were in new areas whereby the opposition never contested before or partially contested in previous GE2020. These include Jalan Kayu SMC, Tampines GRC, Sembawang West SMC and much of Punggol GRC. The incumbent PAP MP might not have expected a more credible opposition party such as the WP and SDP to contest there and were taken by surprise. 

Conversely, the constituencies that previously saw tight contest were neutralised and surprisingly not tight at all. These include notably West Coast-Jurong West GRC, East Coast GRC and Bukit Panjang SMC. This could be attributed to the fact that after the tight GE2020 contests, the PAP MPs really worked hard to improve their service to their constituents. Or perhaps, some voters who merely wanted to give the PAP a scare (but not vote them out) in GE2020 decided to change their votes in GE2025. 

4. Quality more important than quantity. Some opposition parties spread themselves too thin. Some opposition parties even went into three or four cornered fights. For example, RDU fielded 15 candidates in 4 constituencies and did poorly. PAR fielded 13 candidates in 6 constituencies and did poorly too. NSP went into four cornered fight in Tampines GRC and three cornered fight in Sembawang GRC. They lost their deposit for both contests. PPP went into three cornered fights in Tampines GRC and Ang Mo Kio GRC. They lost their deposit for both contests. PAR went into three cornered fights in Potong Pasir SMC and Radin Mas SMC. Their candidates lost their deposit for both contests. 

5. Social media management is very important. WP had a very strong social media presence. WP leader Pritam Singh posted on his Facebook page daily. Viral videos about how WP rallies were too full and their rally venues being unable to enter, Michael Thng and his "We don't want to be told that the sky is white when we see it is blue" speech and Alexis Dang and her long queues of supporters wanting to shake her hands etc. flooded social media. The two young independent candidates in Mountbatten SMC and Radin Mas SMC had strong social media presence also. SDP was strong on social media too. SDP leader Chee Soon Juan posted on his Facebook page several times daily. PSP social media presence was lacklustre. PSP leader Dr Tan Cheng Bock, with more than 100k followers, did not post daily during the nine-day campaign period. The other smaller opposition parties either had no/little social media presence or had bad social media presence (such as been seen as a bunch of singing clowns)

6. Importance of contesting in contiguous constituencies. Opposition parties that contested in contiguous constituencies generally did better. A possible reason SDP did not do well in Bukit Panjang SMC this GE2025 was because Bukit Panjang SMC is surrounded by Holland Bukit Timah GRC which SDP did not contest in this GE2025. PSP contested and did poorly in Marymount SMC and Kebun Baru SMC, two odd constituencies in the central of Singapore, which is far from their main contests in the Western part of Singapore.

7. Importance of party brand. In GE2025 and I expect increasingly so in the next GE, voters are making a stronger distinction amongst the various opposition parties. In this GE2025, WP average vote share is 50.04%, PSP average vote share is 36.25%, SDP average vote share is 30.9%. The other smaller opposition parties mainly saw their average vote share in the 20s%. Building a strong party brand is increasingly important. 

8. Choose the right constituencies to contest in. As mentioned in previous part 2, opposition parties should gun for constituencies with younger voters, and to a smaller extent, constituencies with more non-Chinese voters. Based on GE2025 results, younger voters tend to be more willing to give (credible) opposition candidates a chance.

Conclusion: Opposition parties, less the WP, have a lot to work in if they want to remain relevant in the next GE. They can consider adopting my suggestions detailed above. If they fail to remain relevant, they may remain in or be relegated into the category of "mosquito parties" and run the risk of losing their election deposits.