Why Bukit Panjang SMC will be a nail-biting rematch

I predict that Prof Paul Tambyah might be third time lucky and be elected MP of Bukit Panjang SMC on his third election attempt. This is based on several factors.

1. Bukit Panjang SMC saw a close contest in the last election.

  • GE 2020 (PAP 53.73% vs SDP 46.27%)
  • GE 2015 (PAP 68.38% vs SDP 31.62%)
  • GE 2011 (PAP 66.27% vs SDP 33.73%)
  • GE 2006 (PAP 77.19% vs SDP 22.81%)

2. Both candidates are not new faces. In GE 2020, Mr Liang Eng Hwa from PAP narrowly won against SDP Prof Paul Tambyah. The PAP won 53.73 % of the valid votes vs SDP 46.27%.

3. The boundaries of Bukit Panjang SMC are totally unchanged. All voters in Bukit Panjang SMC would be familiar with both candidates. No new polling districts were added or removed to Bukit Panjang SMC

4. Star factor of Prof Paul Tambyah. Prof Paul Tambyah is a well known figure and a good orator. Videos of him speaking Mandarin are well-received and his ability to converse in Mandarin would be able to help him connect and relate with Chinese voters who form 73.1% of the populace in Bukit Panjang SMC. He is also a three-time election candidate, previously contesting in Holland Bukit Timah GRC in 2015 and Bukit Panjang SMC in 2020.

5. Other factors that may favour the opposition. These include:

- SDP is better known amongst the various opposition parties. Whilst it does not have the same level of national profile compared to WP and PSP. The SDP does have a good level of brand recognition due to its long history and prominent leaders. 

- National issues such as the GST increases and the associated cost of living increases tend to favour the opposition based on history.

- New PM effect, whereby the PAP loses votes each time a new PM takes office tend to favour the opposition based on history.

6. Factors that may favour the PAP. These include:

- Incumbent PAP MP Liang Eng Hwa is a four term MP. He served three terms as MP in Holland Bukit Timah GRC (Zhenghua) before becoming MP of Bukit Panjang SMC for one term. He is an experienced MP and being re-nominated again suggests he is an effective MP.


My Conclusion: I think that Bukit Panjang SMC will be a close contest, and that Prof Paul Tambyah might be third time lucky and become SDP first MP in more than twenty years

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