Reflections of GE2025 (Part 2)

In the second part, I will provide analysis of some trends and voting patterns observed in GE2025.

Impact of age. In general, the older the constituency, the stronger the PAP support. The five oldest constituencies with the most voters above 65 years, namely Kebun Baru SMC, Radin Mas SMC, Queenstown SMC, Yio Chu Kang SMC and Jalan Besar GRC, saw support for the PAP at 68.5%, 69.17%, 81.12%, 78.83% and 75.21% respectively (all above the national average) On the other hand, generally, the younger the constituency, the weaker the PAP support. The five youngest constituencies, namely Punggol GRC, Jalan Kayu SMC, Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, Sengkang GRC and Sembawang GRC, saw support for PAP at 55.17%, 51.47%, 73.36%, 43.69% and 67.75% respectively. These numbers were near or below PAP's national average (except for PM Lawrence Wong Marsiling Yew Tee GRC)

Impact of race. In general, the constituencies with less Chinese voters, the weaker the PAP support. The five constituencies with the least Chinese voters, namely Sembawang West SMC, Tampines Changkat SMC, Marsiling Yew Tee GRC, Tampines GRC and Pasir Ris-Changi GRC saw support for the PAP at 53.19%, 56.17%, 73.46%, 52.02% and 67.66% respectively. These numbers were near or below PAP's national average (except for PM Lawrence Wong Marsiling Yew Tee GRC). On the other hand, generally, the constituencies with more Chinese voters, the stronger the PAP support. The five constituencies with the most Chinese voters, namely Marymount SMC, Potong Pasir SMC, Kebun Baru SMC, Bishan-Toa Payoh SMC and Hougang SMC saw support for the PAP at 70.7%, 69.18%, 68.5%, 75.21% and 37.83% respectively. These numbers were above PAP's national average (except for WP stronghold of Hougang SMC)

Impact of residency type. There were no clear trends (unlike for previous elections). The constituencies with the most private property voters, namely Bukit Gombak SMC, Mountbatten SMC, Tanjong Pagar GRC, East Coast GRC and Holland Bukit Timah GRC saw support for the PAP at 75.83%, 63.84%, 81.03%, 58.76% and 79.29% respectively. The constituencies with the least private property voters, namely Sembawang West SMC, Pioneer SMC, Tampines Changkat SMC, Tampines GRC and Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC saw support for the PAP at 53.19%, 65.42%, 56.17%, 52.02% and 73.46% respectively. 

Impact of political party branding. The incumbent PAP vote share increased from 61.23% to 65.57%, up 4.34% from last GE2020. But, the voters made a stronger distinction amongst the various opposition parties. The WP vote share dropped slightly to 50.04%, down 0.45% from GE2020 50.49%. The PSP vote share dropped to 36.25%, down 4.61% from GE2020 40.86%. The SDP vote share dropped to 30.9%, down 6.1% from GE2020 37%. The smaller opposition parties mostly saw their vote shares going down significantly. NSP vote share collapsed to 1.2%, down 32% from GE2020 33.2%. The SDA vote share increased to 32.3%, up 8.6% from GE2020 23.7%.

The best PAP performers were Queenstown SMC, Tanjong Pagar GRC, Jurong Central SMC, Holland Bukit Timah GRC and Ang Mo Kio GRC. The PAP percentage is 81.12%, 81.03%, 80.51%, 79.29% and 78.95% respectively. These were against opponents from PAR, PAR, RDU, RDU and SUP/PPP respectively. The worst PAP performers were Hougang SMC, Aljunied GRC, Sengkang GRC, Jalan Kayu SMC and Tampines GRC. The PAP percentage is 37.83%, 40.32%, 43.69%, 51.47% and 52.02% respectively. These were all against opponents from the WP.

Conclusion: The impact of the opposition party going up against the incumbent PAP as well as the age profile of the constituency are strong determinants of the intensity of the electoral contest. Race had a noticeable impact. Residency type had a small impact.

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