Why Dr Chee Soon Juan does have a small chance of pulling out a surprise win in Sembawang West SMC

I predict that Dr Chee Soon Juan might have a small chance of pulling out a surprise win in Sembawang West SMC. This is based on several factors. 

1. Racial composition of Sembawang West SMC. Whilst all constituencies in Singapore are majority Chinese, Sembawang West SMC is the constituency with the least number of Chinese voters. Chinese voters only constitute 61.1% of the electorate in Sembawang West SMC. Individuals who attend SDP rallies would notice the racial composition of the attendees in their rallies have more non-Chinese participants than average.

2. Age profile of voters in Sembawang West SMC. Sembawang West SMC has more young voters than average and less old voters than average. Voters above 65 years old make up 11.2% of the electorate (the fourth lowest). This benefits Dr Chee Soon Juan as older voters, who remember how former Potong Pasir MP Chiam See Tong was forced out of SDP, might be hesistant to vote for Dr Chee Soon Juan. 

3. Other factors that may favour the opposition. These include:

- SDP is better known amongst the various opposition parties. Whilst it does not have the same level of national profile compared to WP and PSP. The SDP does have a good level of brand recognition due to its long history and prominent leaders. 

- National issues such as the GST increases and the associated cost of living increases tend to favour the opposition based on history.

- New PM effect, whereby the PAP loses votes each time a new PM takes office tend to favour the opposition based on history.

4. Factors that may favour the PAP. These include:

- Incumbent PAP MP Poh Li San is one term MP. She has served in the constituency for one term and is not a new face. Before her, the PAP MP was former Senior Minister Mr Khaw Boon Wan and former DPM and former President Dr Tony Tan Keng Yam.

- SDP is new in the constituency. In GE2020 and GE2015, Sembawang West SMC was part of Sembawang GRC and was contested by the National Solidarity Party (NSP)

- Sembawang West SMC has zero private housing. Sembawang West SMC is a 100% HDB constituency. SDP lack of experience in managing town councils might deter HDB voters.

5. Other factors that may swing both ways.

- Dr Chee Soon Juan is a polarising figure. To many younger voters, he is seen as an inspiring and powerful speaker. To many older voters, he is seen as someone with a checkered past and disliked for his role in Chiam See Tong leaving SDP and blowing the opposition parties a huge setback with only 2 elected MPs from 1997 to 2011.

My conclusion: 

I think that Dr Chee Soon Juan might have a small chance of pulling out a surprise win in Sembawang West SMC, allowing him to finally succeed in his thirty over years bid since 1992 to become a Member of Parliament.

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