Why Tampines GRC is over-hyped and unlikely to be won by WP

I predict that Tampines GRC will not be won by the WP, and that the PAP will remain the elected MP in Tampines GRC. This is based on various factors.

1. There is a four-cornered fight in Tampines GRC. The four political parties contesting in Tampines GRC are the People’s Action Party vs Workers’ Party vs People’s Power Party vs National Solidarity Party. This would lead to a dilution of opposition votes and the PAP would be advantaged in such a scenario.

2. It is the first time the Worker's Party is contesting in Tampines GRC. WP is new to the area and have never contested in Tampines GRC before. 

  • GE 2020 5M GRC (PAP 66.41% vs NSP 33.59%)
  • GE 2015 5M GRC (PAP 72.06% vs NSP 27.94%)
  • GE 2011 5M GRC (PAP 57.22% vs NSP 42.78%)
  • GE 2006 5M GRC (PAP 68.51% vs SDA 31.49%)
  • GE 2001 5M GRC (PAP 73.34% vs SDA 26.66%)
  • GE 1997 4M GRC Walkover
  • GE 1991 4M GRC (PAP 59.5% vs NSP 40.5%)
  • GE 1988 3M GRC (PAP 61% vs NSP 39%)

3. The Malay/Muslim factor is overplayed and might even backfire against the WP. Whilst Tampines GRC is the GRC with the highest percentage of Malay voters, at 23.6%. However, historically, Malay voters have tended to vote for the opposition (and they are not the swing voters or deciding voters). The playing up of the Malay/Muslim factor and even the Gaza/Palestine factor might even backfire and cause a possible backlash from Non-Malay/Non-Muslim voters and hurt the WP instead.

4. Faisal Manap does not have the star factor, unlike some of his other WP colleagues like Pritam Singh, Slyvia Lim, Jamus Lim etc.. Faisal Manap performance in Parliament is unremarkable. Except for raising the tudung issue, his performance in Parliament as a three-term MP is unmemorable. Faisal Manap is also not known to be a good orator and often stutters. His refusal to answer questions raised by the committee of privilege and him being accused by the COP of contempt of Parliament might hurt him.

5. Besides Faisal Manap, the other WP candidates are new faces. Faisal Manap's team-mates Eileen Chong, Jimmy Tan, Michael Thng, Ong Lue Ping are all new faces with no experience running for election. On the other hand, PAP Tampines GRC slate contains three incumbents (Masagos Zulkifli, Koh Poh Koon, Baey Yam Keng) and two new faces (David Neo, Charlene Chen).

6. Other factors that may favour the opposition. These include:
- The brand factor of WP. Amongst the various opposition parties, WP is better regarded and has better brand recognition due to its long history. In GE2020, WP won 10 seats (5M Aljunied GRC, 4M Sengkang GRC and Hougang SMC). The average contested vote share for the WP in GE2020 is 50.5%, higher than national average.
- National issues such as the GST increases and the associated cost of living increases tend to favour the opposition based on history.
- New PM effect, whereby the PAP loses votes each time a new PM takes office tend to favour the opposition based on history.
- David Neo's rally video circulating around social media. One of the PAP new Tampines GRC candidate, Mr David Neo has a rather negative video of circulating around social media. In that video, the former Chief of Army is seen talking down to voters, not smiling and behaving in an arrogant fashion. This might cost the PAP team in Tampines GRC some votes. 
- Michael Thng's performance in the election rally and Mediacorp roundtable. One of the WP new candidate Mr Michael Thng's speech in the WP election rally and the Mediacorp roundtable is praised by some quarters. That being said, his performance in the Mediacorp roundtable is nowhere near as sterling as Jamus Lim's performance five years ago.

My conclusion:

I think that some media outlets are overly hyping up the contest in Tampines GRC. I think the PAP will retain Tampines GRC and the WP will not win it.

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