Why West Coast-Jurong West GRC will remain a close contest

I predict that West Coast-Jurong West GRC will remain tightly contested. This is based on various factors.

1. West Coast GRC was the closest contest in GE2020. In West Coast-Jurong West GRC now consists of Ayer Rajah, Boon Lay-West Coast, Nanyang, Jurong Spring-Gek Poh and Taman Jurong. In GE2020, West Coast GRC consists of Ayer-Rajah- Gek Poh, Boon Lay, Nanyang, Telok Blangah and West Coast. In GE2020, the PAP team consisting of Ms Foo Mee Har, Mr S Iswaran, Mr Ang Wei Neng, Ms Rachel Ong and Mr Desmond Lee won 51.68% of the votes versus the PSP team consisting of Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Mr Leong Mun Wai, Ms Hazel Poa, Mr Jeffrey Khoo and Mr Nadarajah Loganathan who garnered 48.32% of the votes.

2. Star Factor of Dr Tan Cheng Bock. Dr Tan Cheng Bock was a six term PAP MP of Ayer Rajah. He was known for being outspoken and going against his then political party PAP on several occasions. Dr Tan Cheng Bock came very close to winning the 2011 Presidential Election, garnering 34.85% and losing narrowly to Dr Tony Tan 35.2%. He is well known amongst Singaporeans and enjoys strong name recognition. He indicated that this would be his last election and this might sway some voters to vote for him.

3. Former Minister S Iswaran Corruption Scandal. Former Minister S. Iswaran who was also the MP for West Coast GRC (West Coast) had to resign due to his corruption scandal. This could leave a sour taste amongst voters and cause some voters to punish the PAP.

4. National Development Minister Desmond Lee and housing issues. Minister Desmond Lee is the housing minister and housing is a hot button issue. Rising housing and HDB prices could trigger unhappiness amongst voters and they could in turn punish Minister Desmond Lee by voting him out.

5. Other factors that may favour the opposition. These include:
- The brand factor of PSP. Amongst the various opposition parties, PSP is better regarded and has better brand recognition due to its founder Dr Tan Cheng Bock and their two NCMPs Mr Leong Mun Wai and Ms Hazel Poa
- National issues such as the GST increases and the associated cost of living increases tend to favour the opposition based on history.
- New PM effect, whereby the PAP loses votes each time a new PM takes office tend to favour the opposition based on history.

6. Factors that may favour the PAP. These include:

- Constituency boundary changes have somewhat dented the PSP chances. 2,587 voters from Sentosa and Harbourfront, as well as 28,503 voters from the Telok Blangah area were removed. 41,404 voters from the Taman Jurong and Jurong Spring in Jurong GRC were added. Apparently, the Jurong areas added voted strongly for the PAP in the last General Election. 


7. Other factors that may swing both ways.

- Voters anger regarding the reserved Presidential election might have abated. In the last GE, many protest votes were cast for PSP and Dr Tan Cheng Bock due to him being barred from contesting the Presidential election due to rule changes. These voters might swing back to the PAP.

- Both sides are fielding old and new faces. For the PAP, they are fielding incumbents Ang Wei Neng, Desmond Lee, Shawn Huang and new faces Cassandra Lee, Hamid Razak. For the PSP, they are fielding experienced candidates Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Leong Mun Wai, Hazel Poa and new faces Sani Ismail, Sumarleki Amjah.


My conclusion:

I think that West Coast-Jurong West GRC will be a close contest and the PSP might eke out a win come election night and send Dr Tan Cheng Bock to his final and last term in Parliament.

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