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Reflections of GE2025 (Part 3)

In the third part, I will provide some thoughts on how the opposition parties can improve on their GE2025 results. 1. Rallies are important. In the nine-day campaign period, WP had five rallies. SDP had eight rallies. PSP had only three rallies over the nine-day campaign period. Some of the smaller opposition parties opted for one or two rallies or even e-rallies. In general, the more physical rallies, the better the result for opposition parties. 2. More young candidates. The WP had many young candidates that were featured prominently by the party and the media. SDP had Arrifin Sha who is 28 years old and three other candidates in their 40s. PSP youngest candidate is Stephanie Tan who is 37 years old, a not very young age. The next youngest PSP candidate was Wendy Low at 48 years old and Sani Ismail at 49 years old. The two young independent candidates at Mountbatten SMC (34 years old) and Radin Mas SMC (28 years old) did very credibly. The other opposition parties had many of the ol...
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Reflections of GE2025 (Part 2)

In the second part, I will provide analysis of some trends and voting patterns observed in GE2025. Impact of age. In general, the older the constituency, the stronger the PAP support . The five oldest constituencies with the most voters above 65 years, namely Kebun Baru SMC, Radin Mas SMC, Queenstown SMC, Yio Chu Kang SMC and Jalan Besar GRC, saw support for the PAP at 68.5%, 69.17%, 81.12%, 78.83% and 75.21% respectively (all above the national average) On the other hand, generally, the younger the constituency, the weaker the PAP support . The five youngest constituencies, namely Punggol GRC, Jalan Kayu SMC, Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC, Sengkang GRC and Sembawang GRC, saw support for PAP at 55.17%, 51.47%, 73.36%, 43.69% and 67.75% respectively. These numbers were near or below PAP's national average (except for PM Lawrence Wong Marsiling Yew Tee GRC) Impact of race. In general, the constituencies with less Chinese voters, the weaker the PAP support . The five constituencies with the l...
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Reflections of GE2025 (Part 1)

In the first part, I would go through the various predictions I made - What went right and what went wrong: What went Right - Sembawang SMC was predicted to be close. Indeed, SDP Chee Soon Juan garnered 46.81% of the votes, narrowly losing out to PAP Poh Li San 53.19%.  - Jalan Kayu SMC was predicted to be close.   Indeed, WP Andre Low garnered 48.53% of the votes, narrowly losing out to PAP Ng Chee Meng 51.47%.  - Tampines GRC was predicted to not be won by the WP. Indeed, WP garnered 47.37% of the votes, losing to PAP 52.02%. However, I was partially correct, as I honestly was expecting a much wider margin.  - Punggol GRC will be a tight contest. I had predicted it and told my friends about it (but did not manage to post it on my blog before the polling day). However, I was only partially correct as the margin was honestly not so tight. The PAP won 55.17% of the votes vs WP 44.83% What went Wrong - New PM effect was not seen.  Despite the PAP having...
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Why West Coast-Jurong West GRC will remain a close contest

I predict that West Coast-Jurong West GRC will remain tightly contested. This is based on various factors. 1. West Coast GRC was the closest contest in GE2020. In West Coast-Jurong West GRC now consists of Ayer Rajah, Boon Lay-West Coast, Nanyang, Jurong Spring-Gek Poh and Taman Jurong. In GE2020, West Coast GRC consists of Ayer-Rajah- Gek Poh, Boon Lay, Nanyang, Telok Blangah and West Coast. In GE2020, the PAP team consisting of Ms Foo Mee Har, Mr S Iswaran, Mr Ang Wei Neng, Ms Rachel Ong and Mr Desmond Lee won 51.68% of the votes versus the PSP team consisting of Dr Tan Cheng Bock, Mr Leong Mun Wai, Ms Hazel Poa, Mr Jeffrey Khoo and Mr Nadarajah Loganathan who garnered 48.32% of the votes. 2. Star Factor of Dr Tan Cheng Bock.  Dr Tan Cheng Bock was a six term PAP MP of Ayer Rajah. He was known for being outspoken and going against his then political party PAP on several occasions. Dr Tan Cheng Bock came very close to winning the 2011 Presidential Election, garnering 34.85% and lo...
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Why Dr Chee Soon Juan does have a small chance of pulling out a surprise win in Sembawang West SMC

I predict that Dr Chee Soon Juan might have a small chance of pulling out a surprise win in Sembawang West SMC. This is based on several factors.  1. Racial composition of Sembawang West SMC. Whilst all constituencies in Singapore are majority Chinese, Sembawang West SMC is the constituency with the least number of Chinese voters. Chinese voters only constitute 61.1% of the electorate in Sembawang West SMC. Individuals who attend SDP rallies would notice the racial composition of the attendees in their rallies have more non-Chinese participants than average. 2. Age profile of voters in Sembawang West SMC.  Sembawang West SMC has more young voters than average and less old voters than average. Voters above 65 years old make up 11.2% of the electorate (the fourth lowest). This benefits Dr Chee Soon Juan as older voters, who remember how former Potong Pasir MP Chiam See Tong was forced out of SDP, might be hesistant to vote for Dr Chee Soon Juan.  3. Other factors that...
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Why Bukit Panjang SMC will be a nail-biting rematch

I predict that Prof Paul Tambyah might be third time lucky and be elected MP of Bukit Panjang SMC on his third election attempt. This is based on several factors. 1. Bukit Panjang SMC saw a close contest in the last election. GE 2020 (PAP 53.73% vs SDP 46.27%) GE 2015 (PAP 68.38% vs SDP 31.62%) GE 2011 (PAP 66.27% vs SDP 33.73%) GE 2006 (PAP 77.19% vs SDP 22.81%) 2. Both candidates are not new faces. In GE 2020, Mr Liang Eng Hwa from PAP narrowly won against SDP Prof Paul Tambyah. The PAP won 53.73 % of the valid votes vs SDP 46.27%. 3. The boundaries of Bukit Panjang SMC are totally unchanged. All voters in Bukit Panjang SMC would be familiar with both candidates. No new polling districts were added or removed to Bukit Panjang SMC 4. Star factor of Prof Paul Tambyah. Prof Paul Tambyah is a well known figure and a good orator. Videos of him speaking Mandarin are well-received and his ability to converse in Mandarin would be able to help him connect and relate with Chinese voters who f...
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Why Tampines GRC is over-hyped and unlikely to be won by WP

I predict that Tampines GRC will not be won by the WP, and that the PAP will remain the elected MP in Tampines GRC. This is based on various factors. 1. There is a four-cornered fight in Tampines GRC . The four political parties contesting in Tampines GRC are the People’s Action Party vs Workers’ Party vs People’s Power Party vs National Solidarity Party. This would lead to a dilution of opposition votes and the PAP would be advantaged in such a scenario. 2. It is the first time the Worker's Party is contesting in Tampines GRC. WP is new to the area and have never contested in Tampines GRC before.  GE 2020 5M GRC (PAP 66.41% vs NSP 33.59%) GE 2015 5M GRC (PAP 72.06% vs NSP 27.94%) GE 2011 5M GRC (PAP 57.22% vs NSP 42.78%) GE 2006 5M GRC (PAP 68.51% vs SDA 31.49%) GE 2001 5M GRC (PAP 73.34% vs SDA 26.66%) GE 1997 4M GRC Walkover GE 1991 4M GRC (PAP 59.5% vs NSP 40.5%) GE 1988 3M GRC (PAP 61% vs NSP 39%) 3. The Malay/Muslim factor is overplayed and might even backfire against the WP....
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